Climate change and food security
Recent Research 
United States maize yields are projected to decrease (by 2050) and become more variable 
P​rojected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields - Urban et al. (2012)

Intensification of extreme precipitation and extreme drying caused by global warming is now discernible and double the projections of models.
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000 P. Durack, et al Science 27 April 2012

Climate Change Helps, Then Quickly Stunts Plant Growth, Decade-Long Study Shows
​Zhuoting Wu,et al . Biogeochemical and ecological feedbacks in grassland responses to warming. Nature Climate Change, 2012
Floods and Droughts in a Changing Climate – Now and the Future 29 April 2011  Paul A. Dirmeyer April 29th, 2011 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies  Maryland
Global warming threatens China ... by cutting crops, shrinking rivers, more droughts & floods, ​Govt of China  Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change Jan 2012
Knowledge Summary Women's and Children's Health  The WHO Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health June 2012
​Today almost half a billion women and children under 5 in the developing world are undernourished.
This number could increase by 20 percent, reaching one in five within a decade, compared to one in seven today, due to the impacts of climate change on global food production, according to a detailed analysis by The Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health (PMNCH), the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN System Standing Committee on Nutrition (UNSCN), 

Rice production in a changing climate: meta-analysis of responses to elevated CO2 & elevated ozone concentration. E Ainsworth  11 MAR 2008

​​When compared with rice grown in charcoal-filtered air, rice exposed to 62 ppb O3 showed a 14% decrease in yield. Many determinants of yield, including photosynthesis, biomass, leaf area index, grain number and grain mass, were reduced by elevated O3 (ground level ozone). While there have been too few studies of the interaction of CO2 and O3 for meta-analysis, the interaction of temperature and CO2 has been studied more widely. Elevated temperature treatments negated any enhancement in rice yield at elevated CO2. 

2012 NASA Goddard Frequency of NH hot summers increasing 
Dec 2012 Nature Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation Wash Post 
Nov 2011 Achieving food security in the  face of climate change. Summary for policy makers  Commission on  Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
Dec 2012 Ed Hawkins  Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields  1960s - 2030s
Jan 2013 Potsdam Institute Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five
 Loss of Summer Rains Stoked Long Droughts in the US Southwest   11 March 2013 AGU Release
Warming in Central China Greater Than Most Climate Models Indicated PNAS May 15, 2013
Warmer Climate Threatens Africa’s Vital Cassava Crop Climate Central 11 May 2013
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models Aiguo Dai Nature Climate Change Aug 2012
No-win situation for agriculture  in the Amazon 34% drop in soybean by 2050 Environmental Research Letters 10 May 2013
9 June 2013  Nature Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change Models disagree more with increasing​ climate change CO2 effect and warming
June 2013 Potsdam Climate Impacts Institute  Monsoon rainfall likely to increase under warming potentially putting millions of poor farmers and the country's agricultural productivity at risk.
​ Note  2012 A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India.
​Indian Monsoon Failure More Frequent With Global Warming, Research Suggests.
Science August 2013 Climate change and global food security
Climatic Change Aug 2013 Climate change impacts on global agriculture A. Calzadilla. Higher food prices no matter which scenario. 
August 2013 Nature Climate Change Heat stress reduces labor capacity under climate warming. major impact on labour intensive food production 
Sept 2013 Crop pests and pathogens move  poleward in a warming  world  Nature  More than 25 km (16 miles) a decade - a threat to world food security
Science  daily 3  km /year Currently 10-16% of global crop production is lost to pests.- enough to feed 9% of world population   The diversity of crop pests continues to expand and new strains are continually evolving..  This impact is not included in climate crop models or climate change assessments
The Impact of Climate, Disease, and Wheat Breeding on Wheat Variety Yields in Kansas, 1985–2011
Andrew Barkley et al August 20113 a 1ºC increase in projected mean temperature was found to decrease wheat yields by nearly 21%.
​September 2013 IFPR IClimate Change Threatens Southern Africa’s Vital Crops
August 2013 Climate Change Threatens Crop Yields in Brazil - national climate change  assessment
Climate change to strip food production - researchers: maize S. Africa "A staggering 96 percent of farms could be negatively affected by climate change."
March 2014 Meta-analysisClimate change will reduce crop yields sooner than we thought affecting all regions
Oct 2012 The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity - focus atmospheric CO2 and tropospheric ozone
Mar 2014  Global Warming and 21st Century Drying PET will reduce crop yields even in temperature regions and even with adaptation measures 
Warming climate may spread drying to a third of Earth, says study (above) 
April 2014 Increased CO2 reduces grain nutrient ' increasing CO2 concentrations of the 21st century are likely to decrease the protein concentration of many human plant foods'.  Effects of elevated CO2 on the protein concentration of food crops: a meta-analysis
10 Dec 2012 University of Gothenburg quality wheat (declines) when carbon dioxide levels in the air rise 
April 2014 GRL S. Wang  Severe California drought linked to global warming
May 2014 Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change - leading to increasing crop failures 
July 2014 : the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades
August 2014  Food security faces growing pest advance
August 2014 Chance of 'megadrought' in U.S. Southwest now 50%, study concludes - also Australia, southern Africa and the Amazon. 
Aug 2014 World Bank Climate change may disrupt food security within a decade
Sept 2014 OXFAM Extreme weather - extreme food prices in a warming world
June 2014 World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010 Jonathan Spinoni et al June 2014
Dec 2014 PBS crop declines  Climate change could cut 18 percent of world food production by 2050 (the paper)
Dec 2014 Warming already cutting global wheat yields that are projected to fall  to fall 6% for every 1C temperature increase
Dec 2014 Tropical deforestation adds to warming and changes  rainfall affects regionanally and possibly distant NH agriculture
Jan 2015 Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.  .. ​'warming already slowing yield gains majority of locations. Global wheat production to fall by 6% per °C 

Jan 2015 Deepak Ray ​​Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Most productive regions more vulnerable to climate variability.

Jan 2015 Possible peak food ​Research paper    Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use
Jan 2015 Climate change a "threat multiplier" for farming-dependent states-analysis
Jan 2015 FAO  Loss of crop diveristy is a large thereat to future food production
Feb 2015 Science Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains B. I. Cook,
Feb 2015 Stanford European grain stagnation linked to climate change
Feb 2015 World  wheat yields to drop 6% per global degree C temperature rise (effect of warming only, & worse than had been thought).
Feb 2015 EU pollinator decline in Europe
23 Feb 2015 Robust ... increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections
June 2014 Responses of terrestrial aridity to global warming JGR Qiang Fu
June 2014 MIT  Miroslav Trnka Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change, similar risks to other crops,
6 May 2015  PNAS  J. Tack  Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields        'warming on yields is negative'  15 percent decline at 2C   ' limited scope for adaptation'
May 2015 Loss of  5,500 glaciers in Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region  by 2100 -70% loss with  impacts on farming and hydropower
May 2015 FAO State of Word Food Insecurity

     ​8 Feb 2016 Running dry:
The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state
     ​6 Jan 2016 UBC
 Drought, heat take toll on global crops. Drought and extreme heat slashed global cereal harvests between 1964 and 2007 – and the impact of these weather            disasters was greatest in North America, Europe and Australasia
​​ 12 Nov 2015 Desertificatio
n: The people whose land is turning to dust Africa
​ 12 Oct 2015 Global marine analysis
suggests food chain collapse
​​ 7 Oct 2015 Australia
 Climate change a massive threat to food security, agriculture
​​Oct 2015 Agriculture for Impact African small holders
climate change  Mean temperatures in Africa (by 2100) will rise faster than the global average, and may reach as high
as 3°C to 6°C greater than 20th century levels.  
​28 Aug 2015 California drought driven by AGW
 Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014
​​​​27 Aug 2015 European ‘extreme weather
belt’ linked to worst drought since 2003
27 Aug 2015  Humus
depletion induced by climate change?
​​23 Aug 2015 Extreme weather risks tripling food shortages: new study​​
17 Aug 2015 Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments. 'An increase in CO2 was unable to compensate for the negative impact of an increase in temperature on biomass and yield of wheat and rice. Yields of wheat and rice were decreased by 10-12% and 17-35%, respectively, under the combination of elevated CO2 and temperature'.
​3 August 2015 An end-to-end assessment of extreme weathe
r impacts on food security  Erik Chave, Current assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture mostly focus on average crop yield vulnerability to climate and adaptation scenarios4, . Also, although new-generation climate models have improved and there has been an exponential increase in available data6, the uncertainties in their projections over years and decades, and at regional and local scale, have not decreased,
​23 June 2015 New research
warns of catastrophic food shortages due to unchecked climate change.  By 2014 “The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
2014  B. Cook Global Warming and Drought in the 21st Century

​2 March 2016 Syria’s drought
'has likely been its worst in 900 years'
2 March 2016 At least 500,000 extra people will probably die by 2050 from health effects related to warming temperatures and food shortages
​​April 2016 How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis 

2013 UNCTAD Wake Up Before It Is Too Late The world needs a paradigm shift in agriculture
30 May 2016    Climate change: Canada’s prairies- a dust bowl within decades?  Prairie Climate Atlas
7 May 2016 Lancet  Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change -substantial food declines by 2050
2016 FAO Climate change and food security: risks and responses
July 2016 D Shindell Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants
27 Sept 2016 Royal Soc Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses (1000s X)
2016 FAO The State of Food and Agriculture Climate change agriculture food.  A review o the Fifth Assessment of the IPCC suggests that at 2030 world food output declines
Nov 2014 Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Deepak K. Ray  Note: the linear climate crop models do not capture the impacts of climate variability.
20 Dec 2016  Dust Bowl would devastate today's crops, study finds
19 Jan 2017 Harvests in the US to suffer from climate change  Paper Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

Feb 2017 FAO  The Future of Food and Agriculture
6 March  2017 USA Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity Xin-Zhong Liang
6 May 2017 Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply
Jan 2016 Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils  D. R. Schlaepfer
11 May 2017 Multi bread basket crop failure from global climate change Guardian article 
15 Aug 2017 Climate change will cut crop yields: study
15 Sept 2017 UN  38 million more people are hungry, the increase largely due to the proliferation of violent conflicts and climate-related shocks,
24 Oct 2017 World Bank Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability- new evidence- increasingly erratic rainfall impacts deep lasting impacts
7 Nov 2017    Big meat and dairy's supersized footprint
2013 FAO Tackling Climate Change through Livestock 
26 Feb 2018 Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review  Article New study — Climate change threatens major crops in California
15 Mar 2018   Climate change Disasters causing billions in agricultural losses, with drought leading the way
March 2018       The Global Report on Food Crises 2018  FSIN FAO 2017, = 124 million 51 countries  Crisis levels of acute food insecurity up from 2016 Agroecology needed
​22 March 2018
Food Crises Intensifying Because of Climate Change and Conflict
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​1 Nov 2019  Rice yields will plummet and arsenic rises in future climate-soil scenarios
​21 Oct 2019  Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world (30% of global emissions decline) 
11 Oct 2019 ​ China 'flash droughts' 
Oct 2019 FAO State world food  Diet-reduction of 29–52 percent in global GHG emissions, p.106
25 Sept 2019 Miroslav Trnka,Severe global climate impacts of simultaneous drought with losses to
​wheat yields even with mitigation 
​September 2019 Global Commission on Adaptation Global demand for food will increase by 50 percent and yields
​may decline by up to 30 percent by 2050
in the absence of ambitious climate action.
​5 Sept 2019 Climate change could halve crop production in southern Europe by 2050, report warns
​3 July 2019 Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability, W. B. Anderson
17 May 2019 Crops at risk from changing climate
1 May 2019    ​Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
3 May 2019 ​The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields (-ve impact top NH crops) 
5 March 2019 Food and Earth Systems: Priorities for Climate Chang
​   31 May 2019  Climate change already affected word food production
17 May 2019 ​United States Heat Wave Frequency and Arctic Ocean Marginal Sea Ice Variability
​1 May 2019 Human influence on global droughts goes back 100 years, NASA study finds​
3 May 2019 Climate extremes explain 18%-43% of global crop yield variations
​​9 April 2019 ​​Simultaneous heatwaves caused by anthropogenic climate change
2 April 2019 Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change (Ethiopia)
19 March 2019 Researchers explore the effects of climate change on hunger
2 March 2019 ​Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future, Guoyong Leng, -ve non-linear impact_,
​22 Feb 2019 FAO The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture    UN: Growing threat to food from decline in biodiversity
14 Dec 2018  Climate change has made US S.western megadrought 38 percent more severe
​Nov 2018 FAO State World Food Security Nutrition Climate
19 Oct 2018      Warming raises threat of global famine repeat
​​1 Oct 2018  Drought losses in China will soar with continuing global warming: Study
​Sept 2018   Agriculture trade climate change & food security 
31 Aug 2018 Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate
9 Aug 2018 ​Physiological and growth responses of potato cultivars to heat stress
​31 July 2018
   North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation- intolerable heat for farmers
​18 July 2018   
Meat and dairy emissions rival fossil fuel fuels
​3 July 2018
 Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study
​11 June 2018
   Future warming increases ... maize production shocks
​April 2018 The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security (2017) mainly drought
​11 April 2018   The 100th Meridian, Where the US Great Plains Begin, May Be Shifting                                                                                                                                April 2018 The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security
19 April 2018Man-made conflict, climate change main drivers of global hunger, says UN
2014 Protecting women’s and children’s health from a changing climate
22 Feb 2018, Climate-Driven Crop Yield Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production
10 July 2017, Warmer Arctic harms crops in US, Canada: study
Sept 2016, L Livermore, Arctic sea ice loss California drought
May 2019 UNEP        Putting Carbon back where it belongs - the potential of carbon sequestration in the soil & global soil degradation with CO2 emissions
1 April 2021  Climate change cut ​global farming productivity 21% since 1960s
​25 Jan 2021
Climate Change Uproots Global Agriculture
8 Dec 2020 ​Increase in Compound Drought and Heatwaves in a Warming World
​10 Nov 2020
26 Oct 2020 ​US corn crop's growing sensitivity to drought revealed
​24 Aug 2020
Climate change and land use are accelerating soil erosion by water
​11 May 2020
The proportion of soil-borne pathogens increases with warming at the global scale (increased crop disease losses)

​26 March 2020      2019 Climate & Crop Overview 
20 March 2020 ​Variation trend of global soil moisture and its cause analysis  ​
​20 Dec 2019   Climate change could cut fruit production by almost a third    Nov 2019 paper 
​9 Dec 2019 Newly Identified Jet-Stream Pattern Could Imperil Global Food Supplies (Nature Dec 2019 Amplified Rosby waves enhance risk of concurrent heat waves in major breadbasket regions)
10 Dec 2019 Article Jet stream changes may hit global breadbaskets  (“We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heat waves in major crop-producing regions")
9 Dec 2019   Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets
Dec 2019​ WMO State of Climate Services: Agriculture & Food Services 
​5 Dec 2019 UN FAO Soil erosion must be stopped to save our future
October 2019​   Climate Change and Food Security Center Strategic Studies

10 December 2019Jet stream changes hit global breadbaskets
8 Apr 2021Study calls for urgent climate change action to secure global food supply   Word doc of multiple impacts 
12 May 2021  Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration,& intensity
NOAA  14 Sept 2020North Hemisphere hottest summer on record

2 June 2021 FAO    Scientific review of the impact of climate change on plant pests
3 June 2021 UNEP FAO Ecosystem restoration, Farmland  (20% affected)
8 June 2021 Greenhouse gas emissions from food systems: building the evidence base
Due Sept 2021 Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change.. "Our key finding is that the brunt of yield losses falls on major crop producing and exporting countries". 
10 May 2021  Agricultural SUBSIDIES and global greenhouse gas emissions
4 Nov 2021 Climate impacts on global agriculture earlier in new generation of climate crop models
17 Jan 2022,  Ozone pollution threatens the production of major staple crops in East Asia
2 Feb 2022 Extreme weather events and the fragility of agriculture in development countries
​6 Feb 2022
A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops
​3 Feb 2022
Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO Esp N Am
1 Feb 2022 ​Phasing out animal agriculture could potentially stabilize greenhouse gas levels for decades, according to new model

14 Sept 2021 Chatham House Climate Change risk Assessment