Climate change and food security

Recent Research 
United States maize yields are projected to decrease (by 2050) and become more variable 
P​rojected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields - Urban et al. (2012)

Intensification of extreme precipitation and extreme drying caused by global warming is now discernible and double the projections of models.
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000 P. Durack, et al Science 27 April 2012

Climate Change Helps, Then Quickly Stunts Plant Growth, Decade-Long Study Shows
​Zhuoting Wu,et al . Biogeochemical and ecological feedbacks in grassland responses to warming. Nature Climate Change, 2012
Floods and Droughts in a Changing Climate – Now and the Future 29 April 2011  Paul A. Dirmeyer April 29th, 2011 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies  Maryland
Global warming threatens China ... by cutting crops, shrinking rivers, more droughts & floods, ​Govt of China  Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change Jan 2012
Knowledge Summary Women's and Children's Health  The WHO Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health June 2012
​Today almost half a billion women and children under 5 in the developing world are undernourished.
This number could increase by 20 percent, reaching one in five within a decade, compared to one in seven today, due to the impacts of climate change on global food production, according to a detailed analysis by The Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health (PMNCH), the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN System Standing Committee on Nutrition (UNSCN), 

click for PDF presentation
Rice production in a changing climate: meta-analysis of responses to elevated CO2 & elevated ozone concentration. E Ainsworth  11 MAR 2008

​​When compared with rice grown in charcoal-filtered air, rice exposed to 62 ppb O3 showed a 14% decrease in yield. Many determinants of yield, including photosynthesis, biomass, leaf area index, grain number and grain mass, were reduced by elevated O3 (ground level ozone). While there have been too few studies of the interaction of CO2 and O3 for meta-analysis, the interaction of temperature and CO2 has been studied more widely. Elevated temperature treatments negated any enhancement in rice yield at elevated CO2. 

2012 NASA Goddard Frequency of NH hot summers increasing 
Dec 2012 Nature Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation Wash Post 
Nov 2011 Achieving food security in the  face of climate change. Summary for policy makers  Commission on  Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
Dec 2012 Ed Hawkins  Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields  1960s - 2030s
Jan 2013 Potsdam Institute Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five
 Loss of Summer Rains Stoked Long Droughts in the US Southwest   11 March 2013 AGU Release
Warming in Central China Greater Than Most Climate Models Indicated PNAS May 15, 2013
Warmer Climate Threatens Africa’s Vital Cassava Crop Climate Central 11 May 2013
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models Aiguo Dai Nature Climate Change Aug 2012
No-win situation for agriculture  in the Amazon 34% drop in soybean by 2050 Environmental Research Letters 10 May 2013
9 June 2013  Nature Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change Models disagree more with increasing​ climate change CO2 effect and warming
June 2013 Potsdam Climate Impacts Institute  Monsoon rainfall likely to increase under warming potentially putting millions of poor farmers and the country's agricultural productivity at risk.
​ Note  2012 A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India.
​Indian Monsoon Failure More Frequent With Global Warming, Research Suggests.
Science August 2013 Climate change and global food security
Climatic Change Aug 2013 Climate change impacts on global agriculture A. Calzadilla. Higher food prices no matter which scenario. 
August 2013 Nature Climate Change Heat stress reduces labor capacity under climate warming. major impact on labour intensive food production 
Sept 2013 Crop pests and pathogens move  poleward in a warming  world  Nature  More than 25 km (16 miles) a decade - a threat to world food security
Science  daily 3  km /year Currently 10-16% of global crop production is lost to pests.- enough to feed 9% of world population   The diversity of crop pests continues to expand and new strains are continually evolving..  This impact is not included in climate crop models or climate change assessments
The Impact of Climate, Disease, and Wheat Breeding on Wheat Variety Yields in Kansas, 1985–2011
Andrew Barkley et al August 20113 a 1ºC increase in projected mean temperature was found to decrease wheat yields by nearly 21%.
​September 2013 IFPR I Climate Change Threatens Southern Africa’s Vital Crops
August 2013 Climate Change Threatens Crop Yields in Brazil - national climate change  assessment
Climate change to strip food production - researchers: maize S. Africa "A staggering 96 percent of farms could be negatively affected by climate change."
March 2014 Meta-analysis Climate change will reduce crop yields sooner than we thought affecting all regions
Oct 2012 The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity - focus atmospheric CO2 and tropospheric ozone
Mar 2014  Global Warming and 21st Century Drying PET will reduce crop yields even in temperature regions and even with adaptation measures 
Warming climate may spread drying to a third of Earth, says study (above) 
April 2014 Increased CO2 reduces grain nutrient ' increasing CO2 concentrations of the 21st century are likely to decrease the protein concentration of many human plant foods'.  Effects of elevated CO2 on the protein concentration of food crops: a meta-analysis
10 Dec 2012 University of Gothenburg quality wheat (declines) when carbon dioxide levels in the air rise 
April 2014 GRL S. Wang  Severe California drought linked to global warming
VIDEO Vietnam rice production
​- sea level rise

May 2014 Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change - leading to increasing crop failures 
July 2014 : the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades
August 2014  Food security faces growing pest advance
August 2014 Chance of 'megadrought' in U.S. Southwest now 50%, study concludes - also Australia, southern Africa and the Amazon. 
Aug 2014 World Bank Climate change may disrupt food security within a decade
Sept 2014 OXFAM Extreme weather - extreme food prices in a warming world
June 2014 World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010 Jonathan Spinoni et al June 2014
Dec 2014 PBS crop declines  Climate change could cut 18 percent of world food production by 2050 (the paper)
Dec 2014 Warming already cutting global wheat yields that are projected to fall  to fall 6% for every 1C temperature increase
Dec 2014 Tropical deforestation adds to warming and changes  rainfall affects regionanally and possibly distant NH agriculture
Jan 2015 Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.  .. ​'warming already slowing yield gains majority of locations. Global wheat production to fall by 6% per °C 

Jan 2015 Deepak Ray ​​Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Most productive regions more vulnerable to climate variability.

Jan 2015 Possible peak food ​Research paper    Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use
Jan 2015 Climate change a "threat multiplier" for farming-dependent states-analysis
Jan 2015 FAO  Loss of crop diveristy is a large thereat to future food production
Feb 2015 Science Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains B. I. Cook,
Feb 2015 Stanford European grain stagnation linked to climate change
Feb 2015 World  wheat yields to drop 6% per global degree C temperature rise (effect of warming only, & worse than had been thought).
Feb 2015 EU pollinator decline in Europe
23 Feb 2015 Robust ... increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections
June 2014 Responses of terrestrial aridity to global warming JGR Qiang Fu
June 2014 MIT  Miroslav Trnka Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change, similar risks to other crops,
6 May 2015  PNAS  J. Tack  Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields        'warming on yields is negative'  15 percent decline at 2C   ' limited scope for adaptation'
May 2015 Loss of  5,500 glaciers in Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region  by 2100 -70% loss with  impacts on farming and hydropower
May 2015 FAO State of Word Food Insecurity

​8 Feb 2016 Running dry:
The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state

​6 Jan 2016 UBC
 Drought, heat take toll on global crops. Drought and extreme heat slashed global cereal harvests between 1964 and 2007 – and the impact of these weather disasters was greatest in North America, Europe and Australasia

​​12 Nov 2015 Desertificatio
n: The people whose land is turning to dust Africa

​12 Oct 2015 Global marine analysis
suggests food chain collapse

​​7 Oct 2015 Australia
 Climate change a massive threat to food security, agriculture

​​Oct 2015 Agriculture for Impact African small holders
climate change  Mean temperatures in Africa (by 2100) will rise faster than the global average, and may reach as high
as 3°C to 6°C greater than 20th century levels.
​28 Aug 2015 California drought driven by AGW
 Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014

​​​​27 Aug 2015 European ‘extreme weather
belt’ linked to worst drought since 2003

27 Aug 2015  Humus
depletion induced by climate change?

​​23 Aug 2015 Extreme weather risks tripling food shortages: new study​​

17 Aug 2015 Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments. 'An increase in CO2 was unable to compensate for the negative impact of an increase in temperature on biomass and yield of wheat and rice. Yields of wheat and rice were decreased by 10-12% and 17-35%, respectively, under the combination of elevated CO2 and temperature'.

​3 August 2015 An end-to-end assessment of extreme weathe
r impacts on food security  Erik Chave, Current assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture mostly focus on average crop yield vulnerability to climate and adaptation scenarios4, . Also, although new-generation climate models have improved and there has been an exponential increase in available data6, the uncertainties in their projections over years and decades, and at regional and local scale, have not decreased,

​23 June 2015 New research
warns of catastrophic food shortages due to unchecked climate change.  By 2014 “The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
2014  B. Cook Global Warming and Drought in the 21st Century

​2 March 2016 Syria’s drought
'has likely been its worst in 900 years'

2 March 2016 At least 500,000 extra people will probably die by 2050 from health effects related to warming temperatures and food shortages

March 2016 1st issue of FAO Crop Prospects and Food Production global wheat production in 2016 points to a small decrease, with
lower outputs expected in Europe and the United States of America. 34 countries mainly African need food assistance
2013 UNCTAD Wake Up Before It Is Too Late The world needs a paradigm shift in agriculture
30 May 2016    Climate change: Canada’s prairies- a dust bowl within decades?  Prairie Climate Atlas
7 May 2016 Lancet  Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change -substantial food declines by 2050
2016 FAO Climate change and food security: risks and responses
July 2016 D Shindell Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants
27 Sept 2016 Royal Soc Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses (1000s X)
2016 FAO The State of Food and Agriculture Climate change agriculture food.  A review o the Fifth Assessment of the IPCC suggests that while positive and negative projections of impacts on crop yields counterbalance each other at global level until about 2030, the balance after that becomes increasingly negative
Nov 2014 Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Deepak K. Ray  Note: the linear climate crop models do not capture the impacts of climate variability.
20 Dec 2016  Dust Bowl would devastate today's crops, study finds
19 Jan 2017 Harvests in the US to suffer from climate change  Paper Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

Feb 2017 FAO  The Future of Food and Agriculture
Feb 2017 USA Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity Xin-Zhong Liang
6 May 2017 Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply
Jan 2016 Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils  D. R. Schlaepfer
11 May 2017 Multi bread basket crop failure from global climate change Guardian article 
15 Aug 2017 Climate change will cut crop yields: study