change and food security
Summary Women's and Children's Health The WHO Partnership for Maternal,
Newborn & Child Health June 2012
almost half a billion women and children under 5 in the developing world are
This number could increase by 20 percent, reaching one in
five within a decade, compared to one in seven today, due to the impacts of
climate change on global food production, according to a detailed analysis by
The Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health (PMNCH), the World
Health Organization (WHO), the UN System Standing Committee on Nutrition
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Rice production in a changing climate: meta-analysis of responses to elevated CO2 & elevated ozone concentration.
E Ainsworth 11 MAR 2008.
When compared with rice grown in charcoal-filtered air, rice exposed to 62 ppb O3 showed a 14% decrease in yield. Many determinants of yield, including photosynthesis, biomass, leaf area index, grain number and grain mass, were reduced by elevated O3 (ground level ozone). While there have been too few studies of the interaction of CO2 and O3 for meta-analysis, the interaction of temperature and CO2 has been studied more widely. Elevated temperature treatments negated any enhancement in rice yield at elevated CO2.
Dec 2012 Nature Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation Wash Post
Jan 2013 Potsdam Institute Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five
Climatic Change Aug 2013 Climate change impacts on global agriculture A. Calzadilla. Higher food prices no matter which scenario.
Sept 2013 Crop pests and pathogens move poleward in a warming world Nature More than 25 km (16 miles) a decade - a threat to world food security
Science daily 3 km /year Currently 10-16% of global crop production is lost to pests.- enough to feed 9% of world population The diversity of crop pests continues to expand and new strains are continually evolving.. This impact is not included in climate crop models or climate change assessments
The Impact of Climate, Disease, and Wheat Breeding
on Wheat Variety Yields in Kansas, 1985–2011
Andrew Barkley et al August 20113 a 1ºC increase in projected mean temperature was found to decrease wheat yields by nearly 21%.
April 2014 Increased CO2 reduces grain nutrient ' increasing CO2 concentrations of the 21st century are likely to decrease the protein concentration of many human plant foods'. Effects of elevated CO2 on the protein concentration of food crops: a meta-analysis
Jan 2015 FAO Loss of crop diveristy is a large thereat to future food production
Feb 2015 Science Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains B. I. Cook,
6 May 2015 PNAS J. Tack Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields 'warming on yields is negative' 15 percent decline at 2C ' limited scope for adaptation'
8 Feb 2016 Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state
6 Jan 2016 UBC Drought, heat take toll on global crops. Drought and extreme heat slashed global cereal harvests between 1964 and 2007 – and the impact of these weather disasters was greatest in North America, Europe and Australasia
12 Nov 2015 Desertification: The people whose land is turning to dust Africa
12 Oct 2015 Global marine analysis suggests food chain collapse
7 Oct 2015 Australia Climate change a massive threat to food security, agriculture
Oct 2015 Agriculture for Impact African small holders climate change Mean temperatures in Africa (by 2100) will rise faster than the global average, and may reach as high
as 3°C to 6°C greater than 20th century levels.
28 Aug 2015 California drought driven by AGW Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014
27 Aug 2015 European ‘extreme weather belt’ linked to worst drought since 2003
27 Aug 2015 Humus depletion induced by climate change?
23 Aug 2015 Extreme weather risks tripling food shortages: new study
17 Aug 2015 Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments. 'An increase in CO2 was unable to compensate for the negative impact of an increase in temperature on biomass and yield of wheat and rice. Yields of wheat and rice were decreased by 10-12% and 17-35%, respectively, under the combination of elevated CO2 and temperature'.
3 August 2015 An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security Erik Chave, Current assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture mostly focus on average crop yield vulnerability to climate and adaptation scenarios4, . Also, although new-generation climate models have improved and there has been an exponential increase in available data6, the uncertainties in their projections over years and decades, and at regional and local scale, have not decreased,
23 June 2015 New research warns of catastrophic food shortages due to unchecked climate change. By 2014 “The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
March 2016 1st issue of FAO Crop Prospects and Food Production global wheat production in 2016 points to a small decrease, with
lower outputs expected in Europe and the United States of America. 34 countries mainly African need food assistance
2013 UNUCTAD Wake Up Before It Is Too Late The world needs a paradigm shift in agriculture
7 May 2016 Lancet Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change -substantial food declines by 2050
2016 FAO Climate change and food security: risks and responses
July 2016 D Shindell Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants
2016 FAO The State of Food and Agriculture Climate change agriculture food. A review o the Fifth Assessment of the IPCC suggests that while positive and negative projections of impacts on crop yields counterbalance each other at global level until about 2030, the balance after that becomes increasingly negative
Nov 2014 Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Deepak K. Ray Note: the linear climate crop models do not capture the impacts of climate variability.
20 Dec 2016 Dust Bowl would devastate today's crops, study finds
19 Jan 2017 Harvests in the US to suffer from climate change Paper Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models
Feb 2017 USA Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity Xin-Zhong Liang